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Related: Vegas Odds:
Blades / Claws / Fangs
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Now, let's take a look at the probability for standard attack rolls, using 2d6. (Note that some numbers are rounded)
Edit: [3] and [4] clarified to show unrounded values. Edit: Special thanks to R3411Y for pointing out a 1/100 of a rounding error
| 2D6 Result |
Probability of Success |
Probability of success with 1 reroll |
Probability of success with 2 rerolls |
| 2+ |
100% |
100 |
100 |
| 3+ |
97% |
99.9991% |
99.999973% |
| 4+ |
92% |
99.9936% |
99.999488% |
| 5+ |
83% |
97 |
99.5 |
| 6+ |
72% |
92 |
98 |
| 7+ |
58% |
82 |
93 |
| 8+ |
42% |
66 |
80.5 |
| 9+ |
28% |
48 |
63 |
| 10+ |
17% |
31 |
43 |
| 11+ |
8% |
15 |
22 |
| 12+ |
3% |
6 |
9 |
ATTACK ROLLS
Assuming your average attack value is [10] and the average Defense Value is [17], you're going to need to roll a [7] or higher to hit your opponent. The odds are favorable under this situation (58%) that you're going to hit. Realistically though, I don't take much comfort in 58% (I've rolled [1-5] plenty of times with two die). If you look at it from the other side it's a little scarier -- i.e. there's a 42% chance your attack will miss!
Probability Control changes that dramatically, increasing the chance of rolling a [7] to a full 82%. With 2 re-rolls, that goes up to a whopping 93%!
Statistically, with one probability control, odds are good if you need to roll an [8] or higher (66% probability).
Statistically, with two probability controls, odds are good if you need to roll an [9] or higher (63% probability).
So, once again, it comes down to how lucky you're feeling. If you need an 11 or higher, even with just one Probability Control the chance is just 15% -- not very good. And remember, the dice hates you.
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