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To Blade / Claws / Fangs or not to Blade / Claws / Fangs... that is the question. Many people grapple with this problem every week in their local games, but there is an answer.
First is the easy solution: how's your luck? Typically players use raw emotion when deciding to use Blade / Claws / Fangs. How many times have we all heard "gosh, my die rolls suck today?" Logically this makes no sense since die rolls are random and independant of previous rolls. So "my rolls suck today" sounds silly, doesn't? Sure does.
However, after seeing countless games over the years, I can say without hesitation that those those players are probably right. I'm just simply amazed at players who consistently get bad rolls no matter whose dice they use. Those are the times I'd say, "Don't use Blades / Claws / Fangs, because you'll probably roll a one". Sad, but all too true. The only possible explanation is that the universe probably is scheming against you.
Statistically, however, there is a logical answer to the Should I use Blades / Claws / Fangs question. First, let's take a look at the power description from the Blackest Night PAC:
When this character is given a close combat action, you may roll a d6 after making a successful attack roll. The result replaces this character’s damage value, then that damage value is locked.
Pretty straight forward, but when do you want to use it? Obviously you always want to B/C/F when your damage value is [1] since you have a 100% probability of rolling "1" or higher. Here's a handy dandy chart to help you decide (numbers are rounded):
| D6 Result |
Chances |
Chances With
Probability Control
(when factoring
in both the first and
second roll)
|
| 1 or higher |
100% |
100% |
| 2 or higher |
83% |
97% |
| 3 or higher |
67% |
89% |
| 4 or higher |
50% |
75% |
| 5 or higher |
33% |
57% |
| 6 |
17% |
31% |
If you're playing the odds, then you should always use Blades / Claws / Fangs when you have a Damage value of [3] or lower, because you have a full 67% chance of rolling 3, 4, 5, or 6. Simply put, probability is on your side (even if the universe isn't).
If you have a Damage value of [4] then it's a tossup. If you're having a good day, then roll to your heart's content. If you're having a bad day, then I'd definitely recommend avoiding that roll. Obviously the odds are against you if you have Damage value of [5] and using B/C/F is pointless if you have a Damage value of [6].
In the third column you'll notices that your odds increase dramatically if you can use Probability Control on your B/C/F roll. In this case, statistically you should use B/C/F if your Damage value is [5] or lower... but I wouldn't...
Even with Probability Control, I'd only use B/C/F when my Damage Value is [3] or lower -- if my Damage value is [4] or greater, then I'd rather apply that "guaranteed damage" value rather than letting the fates decide.
(edit: note that the chances increase when you account for both the original roll and the PC'ed roll)
How have your B/C/F rolls been?